Analyst predictions 2008
You know when Christmas is just around the corner when:
- the Christmas trees and decorations are up
- the price of Nintendo Wii’s on eBay equals the GDP of a small country
- and analyst houses start making their 2008 predictions.
I have listed below a two of the top 10′s (my own prediction is that Gartner will publish theirs in the next few days) – interesting to see where some analyst houses share the same vision:
- Worldwide IT spending growth will decline, with significant U.S. downside risk.
- With slower IT spending growth, suppliers will increase investments in
hypergrowth markets - notably “BRIC+9″ and SMB - and the disruptive
business models and offerings required to profitably reach and satisfy those
- Key market leaders - including IBM and Microsoft - will (finally) leap
aggressively into “everything as a service” in 2008.
- Application appliances - “iPods for the small enterprise” - will go mainstream
as the industry’s largest hardware and software suppliers innovate with simple,
- A flood of “Web gadgets“ - one or two palms wide, Web-connected, consumer-priced,
and really good at one or two things - will extend the mobile Internet.
- All mobile network operators will - albeit reluctantly and slowly - join the open
Internet and leverage communities to rapidly expand their networks’ value.
U.S. telecom operators will promote consumer VoIP to win back market share
from the large cable operators.
- Social networking’s “cacophony of the crowds” will drive “Eureka 2.0″ software.
Key IT and communications players will redefine who they – and their offerings
and customers - are.
- Green IT - not the latest hype - will take deeper root and move market shares.
Interesting acquisitions are ahead as key players shore up positions in SMB,
emerging markets, online software/services, information management/analytics,
and location-based services.
- CSR – corporate and social responsibilities will drive strategies in EMEA
- EU legislation – the EU will continue to legislate and prosecute
- Energy – the arrival of energy management systems to help control spiralling electricity costs
- Managed services – ICT managed services will grow enabled by virtualisation
- Green IT – green IT components dominate hardware product launches
- Telecom operators – telecoms operators will grow revenues through successful convergence strategies
- Emerging countries – IT spending in emerging countries (CEMEA) will grow at twice the western European rate
- Reduced spending from lending crisis – The sub-prime lending crisis will reduce EMEA ICT spending. Not forecasting a recession though in EMEA
- Internet advertising – internet advertising spend accelerates along with digital marketplace adoption
- Data and privacy protection – software security shifts focus to data and privacy protection
- GROWING DEMAND FOR ON-DEMAND: In light of their low risk, rapid deployment and low cost, organizations will look to hosted and on-demand solutions to perform project management, content management, e-commerce and collaboration functions.
- LINE OF BUSINESS DRAWS THE LINE: IT must come to terms with the fact that territorial lines are blurred and business users will now drive and manage new technology projects.
- BRINGING CRM BACK: A combination of social networking, analytics and collaboration technology in the mainstream CRM domain will directly benefit individual users rather than just sales and marketing managers.
- VOTING OUT TOUCH SCREENS: Touch-screen systems do not stand a chance in ’08 because they are not secure, do not leave a paper trail and frustrate election officials who are not trained to operate them.
- REAL ID, RIP: Amid growing privacy concerns and intense state-level opposition, the costly Real ID Act of 2005 will collapse under its own weight in 2008.
- SAP and ORACLE: NO LOVE LOST: The tech titans are sparring over middleware and suing over stolen data; the battle will only intensify in the coming year.
- ONE-STOP SHOPPING: Extensive consolidation has created software behemoths beholden to their largest customers; large enterprises will be able to demand cheap software and easier deployments from their vendors.
- BYE, BYE DESKTOP: In increasingly complex IT environments, desktop virtualization will emerge as the only cost-effective method for managing the chaos.
- TREAD LIGHTLY ON TRENDS: NEXT UP, GREEN IT: Organizations should focus on reducing ongoing operational costs to spur investment in new projects in the year ahead, rather than worry about being left out of the “Green Club.”
My personal view is that these predictions have a legacy of being 80% right (if IDC’s 2007 predictions are anything to go by) – I hope that IT spending doesn’t slowdown and that further investment in ICT especially in Green IT can make some significant breakthrough. Martin Hingley explained yesterday that one major pharmaceutical company is spending 50% of its marketing budget on CSR issues – if this is the case then it is a positive move, echoed by Richard Edelman’s ‘Be it, don’t buy it‘ concept that I hope is echoed by firms around the world.
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